Who’s turn in the big chair?
Australian politics is becoming increasingly poll driven as illustrated by the debacle of the Rudd Gillard Rudd era, but what of the present government?Julia Gillard deposed Kevin Rudd in what was termed “a midnight coup” with little public explanation, but private polling had shown the Labor Party that their stocks were plummeting under Rudd’s leadership; after his dumping of the Emissions Trading Scheme, his solution to the so called “greatest moral, social and economic challenge of our time”.Kevin Rudd regained the leadership close to the 2013 election, after the bean counters decided that he under his leadership they would win more seats or even win the election.Tony Abbott’s Government got the wobbles after a much maligned first budget when the polls slumped to the point where Back Bench were looking around for an alternative Prime Minister.Tony Abbott declared after he survived the challenge to his leadership that good government starts now; with this in mind he designed a much friendlier second budget, with the attention turning to post budget polls to gauge public reaction. These polls are showing favourable numbers for the government and it is quite likely that an early election will be called before the end of the year.The government seems to have painted themselves into a corner with tough budget measures unlikely to be revealed in a third budget before a traditionally timed election.The election landscape has changed with first term governments more likely to be voted out, with this occurring twice at State level in the past year.
The media seems to have become more partisan than ever before, to the extent that election results in other countries are seen as a vindication of a particular side of politics; as with the recent UK election, with any supposed missteps by either side highlighted like never before. What does this do to the parties themselves? We are likely to see more changes of leadership despite the changes to the Labor Party rules. If Bill Shorten’s poll numbers go backward – and the party – they will find a way to change the leader quick smart.